Real-time state of the 2021-2022
Arctic ice caps surface mass balance
as simulated by the regional climate model MAR
Surface Mass Balance (SMB) =
snowfall + rainfall - meltwater runoff - sublimation/evaporation
Fig 1: Left) Cumulated SMB (in mm) from the 1 Sep 2020 to the today's date as simulated by the regional climate model MAR (version 3.12.1, run at a resolution of 15km) forced by the ERA5 reanalysis (1950-2022) and by the Global Forecast System (GFS) model (20 July 2022-the today's date +3 days in forecast mode). Right) Same as Left) but in respect to the 1981-2010 ERA5 forced average from the 1 Sep to the today's date. The anomalies lower than the 1981-2010 interannual variability are hatched. A zoom over the Greenland ice sheet is available here.
Fig 2: Time series of the anomaly of cumulated Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over the Baffin, Devon, Ellesmere, Russian Arctic (Franz Joseph, Northern Land (Russian High Arctic Islands) and Nova Zembla), Greenland and Svalbard ice caps in GT simulated by the regional climate model MAR (version 3.12.1, run at a resolution of 15km) forced by the ERA5/GFS. The gray shading area represents the 1981-2010 standard deviation around the 1981-2010 average. Negative anomalies mean that sea level rise contribution.
Finally, it is important to note that these numbers are 1st estimates that should be confirmed with MAR forced by ERA5 at higher resolution (<10km) as 15km is not enough to resolve the small ice caps.
Fig 3: Left) Anomaly of the 2m-temperature (°C) in respect to the 1981-2010 average over the same day (today's date). Righ) Anomaly of the 2m-temperature in respect to the 1981-2010 average from 1 June to the today's date.
Fig 4: Time series of the 2m-temperature averaged over each ice cap. The no permanent ice area is is not considered here.
Fig 5: Same as Fig 1 but for the cumulated meltwater production (mmWE). A part of this meltwater is retained by the snowpack and does not runoff into the ocean.
Fig 6: Same as Fig4 but for the mean meltwater production averaged over each ice cap/sheet (mmWE/day).